Monday, August 13, 2012

Pranab Mukherjee becoming CM first, followed by Mamata

chandrasekhar bhattacharjee explores the possibility of a power-sharing arrangement in post-2011 polls West Bengal, with Pranab Mukherjee becoming CM first, followed by Mamata

An analysis of the political situation in post-2011 Assembly polls in West Bengal will reveal that such an arrangement might be good for the state. The state has been caught in a spiral of political violence with all parties including the Maoists having a blood feast. In that light, Mamata assuming chief ministry can lead to unprecedented violence on part of the CPI(M), which will no doubt spark off unforeseen counter-violence by Trinamool activists and the state administration. Pranab Mukherjee scores handsomely here as he has personal equations with most prominent CPI(M) leaders and can tackle the situation more tactfully.

Mamata and her party’s position on the Maoists have been pretty ambiguous from the start. She has always made amply clear that she does not see eye-to-eye with Union home minister P. Chidambaram’s assessment of the Maoist situation and his counter measures. Mukherjee will have greater synergy with the Central view. But this logic gets grounded on the premise that a power-sharing alliance is more likely to be governed by common minimum programmes and agendas than by the personal opinions of the leaders of the dispensations.

The industrialist lobby of West Bengal as well as those who have invested in the state will heave a sigh of relief if Mukherjee assumes power at Writers’ Building. Mamata, in her capacity as railway minister, may have tried to overhaul her image as a pro-development politician but the memories of Singur and Nandigram are still afresh in people’s minds.

Political observers also believe that the astute and experienced Pranab Mukherjee will be better placed to deal with the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha about the situation arising in the Darjeeling Hills in the north of the state.

Of course, sharing power for stipulated periods of time is a bit like playing spin on a tricky wicket. Past experiences of Uttar Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir say that fissures between the partners only get enlarged in such experiments. Pranab Mukherjee’s reputation as a troubleshooter will have to play its part in any such eventuality. Mukherjee will likely play an important part in national politics even if he assumes responsibility of his home state. So that way, he will wield power both at the state and the Central levels. It remains to be seen if Sonia Gandhi and the Congress high command will be comfortable with that.

But the odds against Pranab Mukherjee are also huge as Mamata Banerjee enjoys a huge mass base across the state which Mukherjee or for that matter, no other Congressman, can claim to rival. If the Railway Budget was any indicator, Mamata is dogged on winning Bengal. And being the bigger partner of the alliance, she just might have the final word.




 
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